The Numbers Game

Readers often ask me where they should buy books from, whether I get the same cut from an audio or e-book as a physical copy, and when they should buy a book, because they are concerned with giving me the best deal, and sometimes with what it might take to push me into bestseller numbers. So I asked my editor about some things, such as:

There is a rumor that best-seller lists don’t count books that are sold early, only the ones that are sold in the official week of release. This is a question of some relevance, because my books are almost always on the shelves two weeks before release date. So: does it matter to the lists?

And the answer is yes and no. Almost everybody has to deal with the same soft release problem that I get (a hard release is like Harry Potter got: you were not gonna get that book before midnight the day it was supposed to come out). The NYT apparently aggregates the numbers/momentum over the first weeks of release, whereas USA Today evidently only counts books sold from the week of release (though if you buy it on the Sunday when it’s supposed to come out on Tuesday, that counts as the release week).

We looked at some of my numbers with some of the Walker Papers and concluded that there are enough early sales that it *could* affect my ability to get onto some lists. So ideally? Really, really ideally? My readers would torture themselves and not buy the book until the actual release day, and then everybody go out at once and buy it immediately. This, however, is asking a lot of readers, and I can’t corral everybody and release them all at once. :)

There is also a rumor that Amazon’s numbers don’t count toward any lists. That one is apparently more true than not, though apparently Amazon falls on and off in usage for the lists depending on how willing they are to release their numbers, which varies.

B&N.com, however, *does* count toward list numbers.

Amazon also *always* ships early unless it’s a hard release date. I don’t know if B&N does, but I gather B&N aggregates the numbers shipped anyway and lists them on release day/week. So–without biting a hand that feeds me–it’s probably of more use (not just me, but to any author you like) for readers to pre-order through B&N.com instead of Amazon*.

Now, all that aside, here’s the other vicious truth: I’d really need literally everybody who buys my books to buy them in the first week/month of release in order to have any hope of making seriously big numbers. I have wonderful, loyal readers who have given me an amazing career and have kept my books on the shelves for a long life, which is hugely, hugely important to continuing to do this for a living, but if I want to level up to the best seller lists**, something has to change.

Possibly what has to change is I have to write something different which catches fire, but that’s very hard to predict. :) In the meantime, though, the best I can probably do is hope to get something going that leads into a big splash for the final book of the Walker Papers.

Because we’re on the downward slope here, guys. There are nine books planned for the series, and the timeline is pretty much hell bent for leather from the start of SPIRIT DANCES all the way through to the end of book 9. It’s probably too late to rack up some kind of magic momentum for RAVEN CALLS, since it’s out in four weeks, but I (we, if I assume you’re in this with me) have two books after that to try to hit it out of the park.

*This is not a statement intended to make people with Kindles feel bad. If you have a Kindle, for heaven’s sake, buy a Kindle book. I get the *royalties* the same no matter what; this post is just about whether there’s hope for me to reach a bestseller status over the next few years. :)

**And I do. I have always been in this game to–for lack of a better phrase–win it, and my personal definition of “win” is not “beat the other guy” but “get onto the national bestseller lists”. There is nothing wrong with being a mid-list writer and I’ll take it if that’s what I forever land at, but my completely-out-of-my-hands goal is to have that awkward first name “New York Times Bestselling Author” preceding the already-on-the-covers “CE Murphy”. :)

Breaking radio silence!

Sorry for the sudden burst of silence. After NYCC I went to Alaska, where my writing computer suffered a critical hard drive failure (fortunately, I had backups) and so for a week I had no computer and then I spent another week trying to get the new one set up so it wasn’t totally annoying. Now it’s only partly annoying…

NYCC was a great success. I met a lot of terrific people, many of whom were readers who went out of their way to come up to New York and see me, so that was really fun and exciting. I got a lot of business done, caught up with old friends, and walked a truly astounding amount. :) So a very good weekend in all!

I have to catch up on my Recent Reads posts. *makes a note to self*

The “No Dominion” Kickstarter campaign is going great guns! With ten days left, it’s just $350 away from the Rollover Reward of a limited trade paperback edition of the novella, which will be exclusively available to people who buy into the Kickstarter campaign! My readers are *amazing*!

Also, to my total delight, WAYFINDER has been nominated as one of the Romantic Times’s best fantasy novels of 2011. We’ll find out in May if it won, but I’m really pretty thrilled that it’s been short-listed! :)

New York Times

Sadly, no, this is not a post saying I’ve hit the NYT. Not exactly, anyway. There is, however, a pretty cool article about AmberMUSH players, myself included, who grew up to be professional writers. Jim Butcher is, of course, the lead story, but Cameron Banks, Angela Beegle, and the Evil Hat lads are name-checked as well. Pretty nifty! And a nice way to start the weekend. :)

Wayfinder Arrives

My editor sent me two copies of WAYFINDER ahead of the rest of the author copies coming my way.

Reader, I confess it: I got emotional.

This is a rare moment–the only moment, in fact, since I began publishing–where the books on my shelf represent everything I’ve finished a contract for. Usually when I get a new book and put it on the shelf my immediate reaction is “Yay! Now I want the next one!” But in this case, the next book is under a different contract, so right now my Author Shelf is caught up. 16 full-length novels, 1 novella with cover credit & a 5-issue comic book. Plus some short stories and things, all of which add up to somewhere around 1.8 million words published in the past six years.

Author Shelf, 2011

Damn straight, I got emotional!

mailing list

You know I have a mailing list, right? It’s announcements-only and comes out usually with the wild frequency of once a month. Sometimes less. I think twice in a month once, several years ago. Anyway, it summarizes what, if anything, is going on–crowdfunding projects, convention attendance, books released, etc–in a tidy encapsulated email.

I have 700 readers on LJ (and no idea how many hit mizkit.com or cemurphy.net). I have 1200 followers on Twitter and a thousand on Facebook (and a couple hundred on G+). I’m sure there’s plenty of crossover amongst those followers, but the point is, there are 300 people on the mailing list.

Clearly something is wrong here. So I am running a drive to get people onto the mailing list. It really is the best, most coherent place to find out what’s up if you’re at all interested in my career. And in order to encourage people, I’m going to send books to one in every ten (chosen at random) people who sign up for the list by the end of July.

In the unlikely event I should reach the heady number of a thousand list subscribers, I will do something nifty like write an Old Races story just for list subscribers.

(yes, yes, you whiny butts who are among the first 300, I will probably do some kind of thing JUST FOR YOU too.)

You can sign up for the mailing list here. :)

Inheritors’ Cycle update

I’ve had a number of people ask over the past couple of years whether there would be more books about Belinda and Javier (THE QUEEN’S BASTARD, THE PRETENDER’S CROWN). I finally have an update about that, and the answer is, “Not for the foreseeable future.”

This is a business decision, not a lack of enthusiasm. The people who have contacted me about the Inheritors’ Cycle have loved it, as do I, as does my publisher. But let me try to explain what happens in the life cycle of a book (and writer).

THE QUEEN’S BASTARD sold pretty well; THE PRETENDER’S CROWN, rather less so. Therein lies the problem.

When bookstores order books to put on their shelves, they look at the last book a writer has produced. If that book sold 10 copies at their store, then they’ll probably order 9 copies of the next book. Maybe even eleven. It doesn’t matter if it’s part of the same series. All that matters is who wrote it.

So if the last book sold 3 copies, they’ll order two. And it still doesn’t matter if it’s a different series. They’ll order two, and that means only 2 people are going to be able to grab it off the shelf when it comes in. And they might say, “Great, those sold, we’ll order two more!”–but if there’d been 10 in the first place, and 10 people had snatched them up, they’d be ordering 10 more.

So if PRETENDER’S CROWN sold 3 copies, the bookstores aren’t going to say “Oh, different series, these ones move faster!” when DEMON HUNTS comes out. They’re going to say, “Oh, she only sold 3 books last time, let’s not order more than that.”

You can see the potential knock-on effect this has on a writer’s career.

So at the moment, both the larger part of my reputation as a writer and the market is interested in urban fantasy, not alternate history epic sci-fantasy. That’s what’s selling for me, and it’s what my publishers are interested in, and it is therefore what I’m interested in.

Don’t get me wrong. I hope the worm will eventually turn and I’ll have the opportunity to go back and write more in that world. But for now, well, this is how I pay rent, so I’m pitching urban fantasy ideas, and we’ll see how that goes.

Breaking radio silence

Just a quick note to assure passers-by that I’m still here, but without significant publishing news to report at the moment. :)

Currently halfway through writing SPIRIT DANCES, Book 6 of the Walker Papers, with great hopes of finishing it by mid-April. Beyond that, not much is going on.

Cheers!

DEMON HUNTS teaser!

First, I’d like to thank all of you who bought copies of “Hot Time in the Old Town Tonight”. The novella is now unavailable until I sell it to a traditional publisher, so I hope you’ve enjoyed it!

Second, I was asked recently to put up a page for my works in progress and my upcoming publications, so I’ve done that: 2010 Publication Schedule. It’s linked at the top of the page and in the inner sidebar, so hopefully people will be able to find it when they go looking, in the future.

Third–and I know this is what you’re all really here for–I’ve posted a teaser chapter for DEMON HUNTS, book five of the Walker Papers, due out in June 2010! Enjoy! :)

Cate Dermody novels available again!

I was going to make a posting saying “Look, so I’ve got about ten copies of THE FIREBIRD DECEPTION and about twenty-five copies of THE PHOENIX LAW, and I’d really kind of like to move them out of my closet and into somebody’s bookshelf. If you’re interested, I’ll sell ‘em for $5 each, plus S&H (which would be $7 for 1 or $13 for both) and yes of course I’ll sign them, let me know in comments or email me.”

Only, because those are the second and third books in the Strongbox Chronicles, and because I don’t have enough copies of THE CARDINAL RULE left to sell any, I went to Amazon so I could get a URL to point people at used copies, and instead found this:

Kindle editions of THE CARDINAL RULE, THE FIREBIRD DECEPTION, and THE PHOENIX LAW, all available as of Monday, February 15th.

And then I went to Barnes & Noble.com and discovered they will be available as of Monday, Feb 15 there, too!

Possibly this makes the physical book offer somewhat moot. However, look: they’re cheap on the Kindle and they’re really fun, fast reads, and I practically guarantee you’ll like them. Anybody know how to launch a massive e-book campaign to get people to go buy those? :)

ETA: All sold out of my copies of the Strongbox Chronicles! Thanks!